Kan en överenskommelse nås med Iran?

A nuclear deal amid crisis in Iraq, Israel Hayom, June 29, 2014

Publicly, the Iranians have adamantly rejected all of the West’s demands, and now it is a matter of who blinks first — unless the crisis in Iraq brings about an extreme change of circumstance.

As July 20 draws near and with it a potential nuclear deal between the West and Iran, the chances of such an agreement being reached seem low, unless the unrest in Iraq brings about a last-minute change that would force the parties to elasticize their positions and work together.

The Americans and their allies are fed up with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s polite diversion tactics, and they have decided to make it clear to him that his proposed outline for the agreement falls vastly short of meeting their demands.

Israel is an important — albeit absent — part of the West’s negotiations with Iran. It is not for nothing that U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Bill Burns has recently seen fit to stress that Washington means to ensure talks with Tehran would involve “zero surprises.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a very important, perhaps even vital, contribution to formulating the desired parameters for any nuclear deal with Iran; but it appears that the U.S.’ pledge for “zero surprises” excluded the possibility that it might be willing to elasticize its position on Iran’s nuclear armament in exchange for the latter’s cooperation against the radical forces of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, which are threatening to overrun Iraq.

Those privy to the Geneva negotiations even hedged that last week’s meeting between U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs Wendy Sherman and Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi included the two discussing the potential practicalities of collaboration in Iraq.

Washington was quick to deny this and American diplomats were made to underscore, again, that the Iranian position on several key points — such as the number of centrifuges and amount of enriched uranium — was far from the West’s position on those matters. Only time will tell if the Americans would hold their ground on these issues, or whether the growing criticism of U.S. President Barack Obama’s foreign policy within the U.S. will erode his demands from Iran.

So far, however, the Americans seem steadfast in their demands, making sure to inform Iran that while the West is willing to abide 1,000 centrifuges at the Natanz uranium enrichment facility, such allowances do not extend to any hidden facilities; and that uranium enrichment could be performed only up to five percent — not to the fissile concentration of 20 percent.

The U.S. has also made several other demands of Iran, such as slowing down the plutonium production at the heavy-water reactor in Arak, but it is unclear whether the Americans’ demands extend to the Iranian ballistic missiles program, which endangers Europe as well as Israel (and in the long run, the United States), or whether the U.S. has demanded that Iran also cease all terrorist activity.

Publicly, the Iranians have adamantly rejected all of the West’s demands, and now it is a matter of who blinks first — unless the crisis in Iraq brings about an extreme change of circumstance.

Israeli media was quick to decry the alleged “unprecedented low-point” in Israel-U.S. relations, but this “low” has nothing to do with the security issues. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Middle East Policy Matthew Spence, who spoke at the Herzliya Conference two weeks ago, stressed that Israel-U.S. security ties were strong, and that there was a clear American interest in bolstering them further.

As the Sunni jihadist threat looms over the Middle East, the cooperation between Israel and the U.S. mandates full transparency and zero surprises both on Jerusalem and on Washington’s part, on the Iranian issue as well as regarding the jihadist threat.

Om Peter

Benjamin Netanyahu: "We've seen this before. There was a master race. Now there's a master faith." - "Islam is as dangerous in a man as rabies in a dog." Sir Winston Churchill
Detta inlägg publicerades i EU Europa, Hot mot DEMOKRATI, Iran, Islamister / Jihadister, Israel, USA. Bokmärk permalänken.

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