1 ouce guld brukar köpa 13-15 barrels olja!
I början på 2015 kostar 1 ouce guld ca 1200 dollar och ett barrel olja ca 50 dollar = 24 barrels för ett ouce guld! Guldet måste gå ner i pris! – Annars råder panikrädsla för att hela systemet skall krascha. Så eventuellt får vi se guldet gå upp så att 1 oune guld köper 50 barrels olja (1 ounce = 2500 dollar). Då kommer inflationen igång på allvar!
|The Real Price of Oil:
Dollars, Gold, and the Price of Tea in China
|Written by Vito RispoOil, it’s the lifeblood of our society. It’s given us the freedom and wealth we have today. It’s given us automobiles and machinery and greased the wheels of the industrial revolution. It made old Jed a millionaire. But oil’s in trouble, the price is up and everyone thinks they understand it. But what if the price of oil wasn’t really up? What if it were just an illusion?
“The price of oil is skyrocketing, and that means gas prices are up…”
That’s about the limit of what most Americans know and understand about the whole oil situation. But there are more complex issues at work, and they involve more than just Middle East politics and China.The American Geological Institute (AGI) recently released a report looking at the price of crude oil in relation to the U.S. dollar and the price per ounce of gold. It highlights a fact that probably makes some folks at the Federal Reserve very nervous.This graph makes it easier to understand:The bottom purple line is the price of a barrel of crude oil per ounce of gold (if you wanted to use gold to pay for a barrel of oil). As you can see, that line is stable, and has been for the entirety of the graph through June 2008, which is about 7 years.The top two lines are the price of oil in relation to currency (blue is the Dollar and the red is the Euro). Those lines show that the cost of oil has been going up in relation to currency only. What this chart makes obvious is that the value of oilhas not been increasing in real terms, currency has just been decreasing in value.The 20 year average number one ounce of gold buys is about 15 barrels of crude oil. Over the most recent 10 years, the average has dropped to 10 barrels. The previous peak of 26 barrels was over 10 years ago when crude oil was under $20/Barrel. At the end of 2008, one ounce of gold buys over 22 barrels of oil. One of two conditions exist. Either gold is overvalued (ie should be valued at about $400), or oil is undervalued (should be in the $80 range). Either way, as the above chart shows, this imbalance should not persist for long. The US dollar is a poor indicator of the real price of oil.If the US Dollar were still based on gold (as it was until Nixon eliminated the Bretton Woods system in 1971), then the price of oil would be just as stable as that purple line in the chart is.So oil is worth the same, and the US dollar is just worth less. Maybe we need to shift our focus away from war and drilling; and towards a better economic policy at home.Here is the AGI data reportWritten by Vito Rispo
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